Bitcoin Price Poised for Breakout as It Approaches $61,000 Ahead of Fed’s Powell Speech

As traders’ expectations of the Fed solidifying interest rate reduction at the Jackson Hole summit rise, displeasure with the Bitcoin price may find some respite.

In anticipation of the major macro event of the week, markets on August 23 saw Bitcoin BTC $60,779 circle intraday highs.

Bitcoin looks to the Jackson Hole speech for liquidity indications

Information from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro revealed that $61,000 had returned in the hours leading up to the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole annual symposium.

Chair Jerome Powell’s address will be the main event of this. The speech is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, and traders are eagerly awaiting any indications on a loosening of financial policy.

According to Cointelegraph, starting in September, markets are pricing in a 100% likelihood of interest rate reductions, which would be a significant positive development for cryptocurrencies and riskier assets.

“Exchanging assets state that the address of whether the Nourished will cut rates or not has changed.” Portion of the Kobeissi Letter’s later X feedback was composed.

“Will they lower rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September?” is the query.

The probabilities favoring a lesser rate drop of 0.25% are confirmed by the most recent statistics from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Some, on the other hand, believe that Powell’s surprise is unlikely because they already have high hopes for Jackson Hole.

Former Fed official Lou Crandall told CNBC on August 22 that “I don’t think they’ll feel the need to provide any guidance around that this far out,” despite the fact “I think the Fed’s base case is it’s aiming to alter by a quarter” and “my base case is it’s reaching to alter by a quarter.”

Historical data indicates that rate decreases, although seemingly a stimulant for risk-asset liquidity, do not ensure a sudden spike in the price of bitcoin.

The host of the Stacks Podcast, trader Luke Martin, examined how Bitcoin behaved during the Fed’s most recent cutting cycle in 2019 and found that a bull market was only ignited by the COVID-19 cross-market meltdown that followed.

“The ultimate Empowered rate cut happened in 2019, which besides happened to be a little taken a toll rot. He said, “At that point came the Covid crash, cuts to zero, and cash printer fueled bull run.”

Awaiting a breakthrough in BTC prices

In the meantime, the range of BTC/USD remained limited, with $62,000 acting as a significant resistance level.

According to data from the monitoring tool CoinGlass, there was an extra block of ask liquidity at $61,435 during the day, which kept the price steady.

Checkmate, the anonymous developer of the onchain analytics tool Checkonchain, said on X this week, “This is not what an over-leveraged, long-biased, degenerate Bitcoin market looks like.”

Traders saw that despite this, BTC/USD attempted to overcome resistance in the form of the 200-period simple moving average on 4-hour timeframes.

“In the event that this level is closed over, Bitcoin will surge to $64,000–$65K.” Well known dealer Elja anticipated a few combination on the off chance that it is denied in a area of an X post approximately the subject.

Bulls are pressing for a short squeeze on bitcoin. $62K Bitcoin price ceiling

As market measures suggest a possible breakthrough from the short-term BTC price trading range, bitcoin bulls set important battle lines.

On August 22, Bitcoin BTC $60,783 caused volatility in the market as research indicated that cryptocurrency markets are “looking ripe for a short squeeze.”

Crucial Bitcoin price barriers become clear

The price of bitcoin has moved erratically throughout the last day, staying within a small range, according to data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro.

The previous day saw a spike in BTC/USD due to changes in US employment data and the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve.

This was only temporary, though, as a fresh bounce to $61,000 followed a pullback to $59,500 that helped liquidate late longs.

As of writing, CoinGlass, a monitoring resource, had provided the most recent statistics, which put the total 24-hour cryptocurrency liquidations at $124 million.

Additionally, it demonstrated ask liquidity rising beyond $62,000, making that mark the primary objective for a resistance/support flip.

Popular trader Crypto Feras observed that the BTC/USD pair had retested the region five times in the last two weeks after analyzing the present situation.

It becomes weaker the more it is put to the test. In a recent X post, he stated, “It makes sense that flipping it will require less effort after all these tests.”

“Two-four to two-five is next,”

Despite being trapped in a small trading corridor, some people were optimistic about a strong breakout given the state of the market.

Senior analyst Vetle Lunde of the cryptocurrency analytics company K33 Research noted that a “short squeeze” would result from persistently low financing rates and growing open interest.

He informed X followers, “Market conditions are looking ripe for a short squeeze.”

Since August 13, the notional open interest of Bitcoin perps has increased by 30,000 BTC, while financing rates have remained negative. The average weekly financing rate has fallen to its lowest point since March 23.

Bitcoin traders are still a long way from breaking even

Moving up, the short-term holder realized price, currently centered around $65,000, is another important level for the price of Bitcoin.

According to Cointelegraph, this is the average buy-in price for investors that retain their coins for a maximum of 155 days.

The level often serves as support in bull markets, and the last time the price fell below it for an extended period of time was in August 2023.

In a blog post on the same day, Burakkesmeci, a contributor to the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, stated, “We can say that the 64K – 66K region is a strong resistance level for Bitcoin.”

“Short-term holders will likely publicize their victory stories once they start to shut their misfortunes and turn a benefit. The potential for these tales to draw in new Bitcoin investors.

At $62K, bitcoin needs to “clear resistance” in order to prevent another “Black Monday”

Analysts from Kraken predict that Bitcoin may go below $50,000 if it is unable to maintain its current level of $62,000. However, some of them are less certain.

An analyst report from a cryptocurrency exchange indicates that Bitcoin is at a critical tipping point, and that in order to prevent a retest of $49,000, it must reach and hold $62,000.

Nonetheless, a few of cryptocurrency traders think it’s improbable that Bitcoin BTC $60,783 would go below $50,000 very soon.

Kraken said, “The price action suggests a corrective pattern rather than a strong bullish reversal,” in a technical market update that Cointelegraph was able to read on August 21.

According to CoinMarketCap data, as of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $60,691. It has not been above $62,000 since August 9.

It went on to say that Bitcoin is currently trading close to $59,500, which is its 200-day exponential moving average, which favors the most recent price data.

According to Kraken, Bitcoin must “clear resistance” above $62,000 in order to prevent retesting $49,000.

On August 5, often known as “Crypto Black Monday,” Bitcoin last dropped below $50,000 to $49,842, its lowest point since February.

According to CoinGlass statistics, a jump to $62,000 would be surprising for many prospective traders and wipe away $1.04 billion in short positions.

Sentiment differs among traders

The explanation examined, “This level is significant as disappointment to hold seem flag a more profound adjustment.”

A similar attitude was expressed by pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader Profit Blue.

“Bitcoin is likely reaching to go for a modern all-time tall in case it proceeds to rise over $62,000. Profit Blue said, “If not, it’s dropping back below $50,000 once more.

Some traders, meanwhile, feel that the recent decline was only a buying opportunity and that the downward momentum is about to reverse.

Crypto analyst Alex Becker wrote on August 22 to his 1 million X followers, saying, “That was your last chance to ever get Bitcoin below 60k bruv.”

“Bitcoin is at $60,000, about four times its low. As it was prior to the surge in 2017 and 2020–2021, said cryptocurrency trader PlanB.